Analysts predict a strong finish for the toy industry in 2025, driven by smart toys, emotional expression, and the continued rise of "kidult" collectors.
As the final quarter of 2025 approaches, the global toy industry is poised for a dynamic period of innovation and consumer engagement. Based on emerging trends, market data, and industry insights, several key categories show significant potential to break through and capture widespread attention.
The Sustained Strength of Emotional and "Unruly" IPs
The remarkable growth reported in the second quarter of 2025, where second-hand platform Xianyu saw orders increase by 330.2% and transaction value surge by 309.7% year-on-year, underscores a market rich with activity. This growth isn't just about volume; it's about a shift in what consumers seek from their toys.
Toys that embody traits of "rebellion," "adventurousness," and "curiosity" are resonating deeply. IPs like LABUBU, which has topped sales charts for two consecutive years, Hirono Xiao Ye, Nezha, and Zsiga have seen sustained sales growth. These characters often leverage "contradiction aesthetics," breaking away from traditional, overly sweet patterns to reflect a more complex emotional palette that appeals to young adults seeking self-expression and identity. This trend is expected to continue strongly through the holiday season, with new IPs possessing similar "unruly" characteristics having a high chance of capturing the market's imagination.
The Rise of "Wearable" Toys: Tangle Plush
A significant trend blurring the lines between toys and fashion is the explosion of tangle plush . These toys, combining a vinyl shell with a soft plush exterior, are designed not just for display but for integration into daily life as accessories, often as bag charms or "pack mates" .
The data is staggering: Orders for tangle plush on the Xianyu platform soared to 240 times the volume compared to the same period in 2024. This transformation of toys into "wearable" items, or "walking physical emoticons," significantly accelerates their penetration beyond traditional collector circles into the broader fashion-conscious youth market. This trend is a powerful driver for impulse purchases and social media visibility, making it a prime candidate for break-out success in Q4.
The Power of Nostalgia and Intergenerational Play
The "kidult" market (adults buying toys for themselves) remains a potent force, accounting for a significant portion of annual toy sales. This trend is fueled by nostalgia and the desire for connection and stress relief.
Q4 2025 will likely see continued strength in modernized versions of classic toys from the 80s and 90s. Furthermore, products that facilitate intergenerational play—allowing parents who grew up with certain toys or genres to share and bond with their children over new iterations—will be particularly well-positioned for the holiday gifting season. This includes complex building sets, detailed model kits, and strategy board games.
The Integration of Technology: AI and Smart Toys
Smart toys represent one of the fastest-growing segments in the toy market, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24.7%. By Q4 2025, this integration is expected to move beyond gimmicks towards more meaningful interactions.
Toys incorporating Artificial Intelligence (AI) that allow for personalized storytelling, adaptive learning, and unique interactions will be at the forefront. We can also expect more toys leveraging Augmented Reality (AR) to blend physical play with digital overlays, creating immersive gameplay experiences. Additionally, toys that connect to the Internet of Things (IoT), perhaps offering parental insights or interactive features through apps, will continue to gain traction.
Table: Key Growth Drivers in Q4 2025 Toy Market
| Trend Category | Description | Example Product Types | Target Audience |
| Emotional & "Unruly" IPs | Toys embodying rebellion, curiosity, and non-traditional aesthetics | LABUBU, Hirono Xiao Ye, Nezha figures | Youth & Young Adults (15-30) |
| Wearable Tangle Plush | Toys embodying rebellion, curiosity, and non-traditional aesthetics | Bag charms, keychain figurines | Teens & Young Adults (F, 70%) |
| Nostalgia & Kidult Focus | Modern twists on classics & toys for adult collectors | Retro re-releases, complex models | Adults (25-45) |
| Smart Tech Integration | Toys using AI, AR, and IoT for enhanced play | Interactive robots, educational tablets | Kids & Tech-Savvy Families |
The Domestic IP Advantage
A crucial shift in the market is the dominance of locally designed Chinese IPs. Reports indicate that only 4 overseas IPs cracked the top 20 best-selling list on a major platform in the first half of 2025, down from 30% in 2024. This suggests that homegrown characters and stories have a more substantial advantage in capturing the domestic market's interest quickly. New IPs that tell local stories or resonate with contemporary domestic youth culture have a higher probability of success compared to relying on international franchises.
Conclusion: Predicting the Breakout Hits
While predicting a single specific "hit" is impossible, the trends point strongly towards breakout products in Q4 2025 likely coming from these intersections:
- Fashion-Forward Emotional Expression: A new tangle plush IP or an existing one like WAKUKU (which rose 168 spots in rankings), that perfectly captures a "rebellious" yet relatable emotion and is designed explicitly as a wearable accessory. Its success will be driven by social media visibility and its utility as a style item.
- Tech-Infused Nostalgia: Smart toys that successfully leverage AI or AR not just for functionality but to evoke a sense of wonder or revisit classic play patterns in a new way. Think interactive plush that tell unique stories or building sets that come to life through a smartphone app, appealing to both kids and nostalgic adults.
- The Next "Unruly" Character: A completely new domestic IP that embodies the "rebellious" and "adventurous" spirit currently captivating consumers, potentially launched through a strategic blind box or collectible figure series, tapping into the powerful emotional consumption trends.
The final quarter of 2025 will be characterized by toys that are more than just playthings; they will be expressions of identity, fashion statements, and conduits for technological interaction. The brands that understand these deeper consumer motivations – the desire for self-expression, emotional connection, and seamless integration of tech into play – are the ones most likely to create the next viral sensation.
Post time: Sep-16-2025
