Onyakeni ophawulwe ukungezwani kwezepolitiki, ukushintshashintsha kwezimali, kanye nesimo esishintshashintshayo sezivumelwano zohwebo lwamazwe ngamazwe, umnotho womhlaba uhlangabezane nezinselele namathuba. Njengoba sibheka emuva ku-dynamics yezohwebo ka-2024, kuba sobala ukuthi ukuzivumelanisa nezimo kanye namasu okubona kusengaphambili bekubalulekile emabhizinisini ahlose ukuchuma kule ndawo eyinkimbinkimbi. Lesi sihloko sifinyeza intuthuko ebalulekile ekuhwebeni komhlaba ngonyaka odlule futhi sinikeza umbono wemboni ngo-2025.
2024 Trade Landscape: Unyaka Wokuqina Nokulungiswa
Unyaka ka-2024 ububonakala ngokulingana phakathi kokululama ngemuva kwalolu bhubhane kanye nokuvela kokungaqiniseki okusha kwezomnotho. Naphezu kokuba nethemba lokuqala elibhebhezelwa imikhankaso yokugoma esabalele kanye nokunciphisa izindlela zokuvala izikhala, izici ezimbalwa ziphazamise ukuhamba kahle kwezohwebo emhlabeni.
1. Ukuphazamiseka kwe-Supply Chain:Ukuphazamiseka okuqhubekayo ochungechungeni lokuhlinzekwa kwempahla emhlabeni wonke, okubhebhethekiswa izinhlekelele zemvelo, ukungazinzi kwezombusazwe, kanye nezingqinamba zezokuthutha, kwaqhubeka nokuhlupha abathumeli bamazwe angaphandle nabathumela kwamanye amazwe ngokufanayo. Ukushoda kwe-semiconductor, okwaqala ngo-2023, kwaqhubeka kwaze kwaba ngu-2024, kwathinta izimboni eziningi, kusukela kwezezimoto kuya ku-electronics abathengi.
2. Izingcindezi Zokwehla Nokwehla kwamandla emali:Ukunyuka kwamazinga okwehla kwamandla emali, okubangelwa ukwanda kwesidingo, izingqinamba zokuthengwa kwempahla, kanye nezinqubomgomo zezezimali ezinwetshiwe, kuholele ezindlekweni zokukhiqiza eziphakeme futhi kamuva kwakhuphuka amanani entengo yezimpahla nezinsizakalo emhlabeni wonke. Lokhu kube nomthelela oqondile ezilinganisweni zohwebo, amazwe athile ahlangabezana nokushoda okukhulu kwezohwebo.
3. Ukushintshashintsha Kwemali:Inani lezinhlobo zemali uma liqhathaniswa nedola laseMelika libone ukuguquguquka okukhulu unyaka wonke, kuthonywa izinqubomgomo zebhange elikhulu, izinguquko zesilinganiso senzalo, nomuzwa wemakethe. Izinhlobo zemali ezimakethe ezisafufusa, ikakhulukazi, zibhekane nezingcindezi zokwehla kwamandla emali, okuphazamise ukuncintisana kwazo ekuhwebeni kwamazwe ngamazwe.
4. Izivumelwano Zohwebo kanye Nokungezwani: Ngenkathi ezinye izifunda zibone ukusayinwa kwezivumelwano zokuhwebelana ezintsha okuhloswe ngazo ukukhulisa ukubambisana kwezomnotho, ezinye zabhekana nezingxabano zohwebo ezikhulayo. Ukuxoxisana kabusha kwezivumelwano ezikhona kanye nokubekwa kwezintela ezintsha kwakha isimo sokuhweba esingalindelekile, okwenza izinkampani ziphinde zibuyekeze amasu azo ochungechunge lokuhlinzekwa kwempahla emhlabeni wonke.
5. Izinyathelo Zokuhwebelana Ngokuluhlaza:Phakathi kokukhathazeka okukhulayo ngokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu, kube nokuguquguquka okuphawulekayo kwezinqubo zokuhwebelana ezisimeme. Amazwe amaningi asebenzisa imithetho eqinile yezemvelo ekuthengisweni nasekuthunyelweni kwamanye amazwe, ekhuthaza ukwamukelwa kobuchwepheshe obuluhlaza kanye nokutholakala kwezinto ezinomthwalo wemfanelo.
I-Outlook ka-2025: Ukushaja Isifundo Phakathi Nokungaqiniseki
Njengoba singena ku-2025, inkundla yezohwebo yomhlaba kulindeleke ukuthi iqhubeke noguquko, oludalwe ukuthuthuka kwezobuchwepheshe, ukushintsha okuthandwayo kwabathengi, kanye nokushintshashintsha kwe-geopolitical dynamics. Nawa amathrendi abalulekile nezibikezelo zonyaka ozayo:
1. I-Digitalization kanye ne-E-commerce Boom:Ukusheshisa ukuguqulwa kwedijithali ngaphakathi komkhakha wezohwebo kulindeleke ukuthi kuqhubeke, izinkundla ze-e-commerce zidlala indima ebaluleke kakhulu ekuhwebeni kwemingcele. Ubuchwepheshe be-Blockchain, ukuhlelwa kwe-AI-powered logistics, kanye nokuhlaziywa kwedatha okuthuthukisiwe kuzothuthukisa ukucaca, ukusebenza kahle, kanye nokuphepha emisebenzini yezohwebo emhlabeni jikelele.
2. Amasu Okwehlukahlukana:Ephendula ekubeni sengozini ye-supply chain, amabhizinisi kungenzeka asebenzise amasu ahlukahlukene okuthola usizo, anciphise ukuthembela kubahlinzeki abangabodwana noma izifunda. Izinyathelo zokusondela eduze nezokuthungatha kabusha zingase zibe nomfutho njengoba izinkampani zifuna ukunciphisa ubungozi obuhlobene nezingxabano zezwe kanye nezokuthutha ezithatha isikhathi eside.
3. Imikhuba Yokuhweba Esimeme:Njengoba izibopho ze-COP26 zithatha indawo eyinhloko, ukusimama kuzoba into esemqoka ezinqumweni zohwebo. Izinkampani ezibeka phambili imikhiqizo eco-friendly, amamodeli ezomnotho ayindilinga, kanye nokwehliswa kwe-carbon footprint zizothola umkhawulo wokuncintisana endaweni yemakethe.
4. Ukuqiniswa Kwezindawo Zohwebo Zesifunda:Phakathi nokungaqiniseki komhlaba wonke, izivumelwano zokuhwebelana zesifunda ezifana ne-African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) kanye neRegional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) kulindeleke ukuthi zibambe iqhaza elibalulekile ekukhuthazeni ukuhwebelana phakathi kwesifunda kanye nokuhlanganiswa komnotho. Lawa mabhulokhi angase asebenze njengezivimbeli ngokumelene nokushaqeka kwangaphandle futhi anikeze ezinye izimakethe zamazwe angamalungu.
5. Ukujwayela Izinkambiso Ezintsha Zohwebo:Umhlaba wangemva kobhubhane ungenise izinkambiso ezintsha zohwebo lwamazwe ngamazwe, okuhlanganisa nezinhlelo zokusebenza ezikude, izingxoxo ezibonakalayo, kanye nokukhishwa kwenkontileka yedijithali. Amafemu avumelana ngokushesha nalezi zinguquko futhi atshale imali ekuthuthukiseni abasebenzi bawo azoba sesimweni esingcono sokusebenzisa amathuba asafufusa.
Sengiphetha, isimo sohwebo emhlabeni wonke ngo-2025 sithembisa kokubili izinselelo namathemba okukhula. Ngokuhlala beshesha, bemukela izinto ezintsha, nokuzibophezela emikhubeni eqhubekayo, amabhizinisi angakwazi ukuzulazula emanzini aneziyaluyalu ohwebo lwamazwe ngamazwe futhi avele aqine ngakolunye uhlangothi. Njengenjwayelo, ukuqapha intuthuko yezwe kanye nokugcina amasu okulawula ubungozi aqinile kuzobaluleka ukuze uphumelele kule nkundla ehlala ishintsha.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Dec-02-2024
